India-UK CETA — Turning Market Access into Market Share

Think of India as an FTA buyer. In 2009 we signed the ASEAN deal like a first-time buyer — excited, under-prepared. The trade gap widened badly. Seventeen years later, this op-ed argues India is finally negotiating differently.

The India-UK CETA, the article says, reflects a “mature” approach: India balanced opening up with protecting sensitive sectors — similar to the recent New Zealand deal, where dairy was ring-fenced. Then come four honest worries:

• The benefits will be uneven across sectors and firm sizes.
• Small firms may struggle with UK standards, not UK tariffs.
• The old FTA underuse problem could repeat itself.
• The trade surplus could narrow rather than widen.

The closing line captures it all — CETA’s real test is not market access, it is market share.

Only the genuinely new material is analysed below. Everything here is already explained in depth — read those first if you need them.

• The FTA ladder (PTA → FTA → CEPA) — FTA base article, “What Exactly Is an FTA?” Explains where CETA sits: deeper than a plain FTA, covering services, social security and procurement.
• India’s three-act FTA journey and the ASEAN deficit story ($10bn → $44bn) — FTA base article, “India’s FTA Journey.” Also covers the RCEP walkout and the post-2022 grand reset.
• The 20–30% FTA utilisation gap — FTA base article, “Act 2,” repeated in the 18 Jul CETA analysis. Explains why India historically fails to use the FTAs it signs.
• Double Contribution Convention ($600m savings, 75,000 workers) — 18 Jul CETA analysis. The social security exemption and its limited economy-wide impact.
• Protection-vs-competition thesis (the former CEA’s argument) — 18 Jul CETA analysis. Why import opening is a gift India gives itself.
• Auto tariff cuts, procurement asymmetry, BIT/ISDS gap, CBAM exposure — 19 Jul CETA analysis. What is in the deal and what was deliberately left out.