India-UK CETA — The Full Deal Map: Procurement, the BIT Gap, CBAM and Services

In our previous CETA analysis we covered the why of the deal — the former Chief Economic Adviser’s argument that the imports India allows in matter more than the exports it wins. Today is the what: a map of the entire deal — what each side gets, what was deliberately left out, and two provisions that break new ground for India (opening auto tariffs and government procurement under an FTA for the first time).

If you have read the previous piece, you already know the tariff numbers, the DCC, the protection-vs-competition debate and the utilisation concern. This article adds four things not covered before:

• Government procurement — a Class-I vs Class-II asymmetry that protects Indian MSMEs while opening a £90 billion UK market.
• The investment-agreement gap — unlike EFTA ($100bn) or New Zealand ($20bn), the UK made no investment commitment at all.
• The unresolved BIT problem — India cancelled all Bilateral Investment Treaties in 2017; even with the UK, investor-state dispute resolution could not be agreed.
• CBAM — no country, in any trade deal anywhere, has secured an exemption from the UK’s coming carbon border tariff. India is no exception.

The Commerce Ministry calls this the “gold standard” of India’s FTAs. These three gaps are the test of whether that label survives.

Most of this news is already explained in the FTA base article and the 18 Jul CETA analysis. Read those first; use this piece for the genuinely new dimensions.

• Tariff numbers (UK opens 99.5% of trade value; India 89.4%) — base article, “Act 3: The Grand Reset,” with exact figures.
• Double Contribution Convention ($600m savings, 75,000 workers, 5-year window) — the 18 Jul analysis, in full.
• Auto-tariff reduction (first ever under an Indian FTA) — both articles. Today adds the specifics: a quota of 20,000 vehicles in year one → 37,000 by year five → 15,000 by year fifteen; tariff from 30–50% to 10%.
• Protection vs competition — the whole thesis of the 18 Jul piece (Tata/Mahindra).
• FTA utilisation gap (20–30% vs 70–80%) — base article (Act 2) and the 18 Jul analysis.
• Export gains + Bangladesh/Pakistan/Cambodia level-playing-field — the 18 Jul analysis.
• PYQs 2013, 2020, 2025 — solved in the base article and the 18 Jul piece; not repeated here.