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Decoding India’s growth in merchandise exports

This article, published in The Hindu and authored by Areena Arora and Gandla Sneha , is a data-driven analysis of India's merchandise export performance based on the latest figures released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on August 13, 2026 . On the surface, the story sounds very upbeat — India's goods exports grew by nearly 20% in July 2026 compared to July 2025, touching $44.2 billion . But the authors take us behind that headline number and show us the real picture. Most of this growth was actually driven by just one category — petroleum products — whose prices had shot up because of the US-Iran military escalation in West Asia . Alongside this, they also flag some genuinely positive trends — electronics exports nearly doubled their share , engineering goods grew steadily, and India is quietly opening up new markets in Africa (Tanzania, Kenya, South Africa) , Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan) , and Singapore . But the honest caveat is that even in these new markets, most of the growth is again coming from refined petroleum , not manufactured goods. The article also points out that despite the export boom, India's trade deficit widened from $28 billion to $32 billion , because imports grew even faster. So the overall message is nuanced — India's export story is growing , but it is also fragile , narrow , and borrowed from global events we do not control.